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IS
HISTORY
REPEATING ITSELF?
In the 1930's British economist John Maynard Keynes began
advocating a more active role for governments in their countries'
economies, particularly increased spending, during economic downturns. His
thinking was a departure from classical economists such as Adam Smith who
believed economies could correct themselves without governmental
intervention.
In his struggle with the Great Depression, FDR followed the
Keynesian model. His programs, now referred to as the New Deal, increased
the federal government's share of GDP from 7% to 14%, costing the county
an estimated 500 billion in inflation-adjusted 2008 dollars. To pay this
debt, he raised the top marginal tax rate to 79% and later to 90%. You'll
recall when former President Reagan took office in 1980, the top rate was
still quite high at 70%.
Did increased governmental involvement in our economy lift us out
of the Great Depression or prolong it? That has been the subject of much
debate over the years. However, there are a few undisputed facts: For
example, unemployment topped out at 25%, but never returned to single
digits until we entered WWII and the DOW never returned to its 1929 high
until 1954.
At the end of FDR's second term, Secretary of Treasurer Henry
Morgenthau attempted to sum up his experience with Keynesian economic
theory, "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we
have ever spent before and it does not work...I say after eight years of
this Administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we
started... and an enormous debt to boot."
What lessons can we learn from the 1930's? Faced with our own
economic downturn, we seem to be giving
the
Keynesian theory another try. Will increased federal spending lead to a
better result for us than it apparently did for Secretary Morgenthau's
generation? Will we raise taxes to pay for our spending as FDR did for
his? Will the Dow take 25 years to return to its 2007 high of 14,164?
from
"New Deal or Raw Deal? How FDR's Economic Legacy Has Damaged
America" by
Professor Burton Folsom, Jr., Hillsdale College
FOOD
FOR THOUGHT
Ever wonder why the Great Depression lasted so long? Two UCLA
economics professors, Harold Cole, PhD, and Lee Ohanian, PhD, believe
they've found the answer. Their studies show it was FDR's New Deal
policies causing unnaturally high wages and prices during a period of high
unemployment that short-circuited the market's self-correcting forces and,
thus, prolonged the depression by seven years.
Their findings are ironic in that most people give FDR high praise
for intervening and finally bringing the depression to an end. In fact,
Time Magazine readers selected FDR and Gandhi as the runners-up to their
choice for the most influential person of the 20th century,
Albert
Einstein.
Although
the Great Depression lasted nearly 15 years, generations of economists
have assumed it would have been worse without governmental intervention.
However, the professors' research suggests another look at that
assumption.
And what about today? Could our generation experience its own long,
drawn-out slump? "Not likely," said Dr. Ohanian, "unless
lawmakers gum up the recovery with ill-conceived stimulus policies."
A
NEAR MISS IS A FREE LEARNING EXPERIENCE; SHARE IT WITH YOUR
FELLOW WORKERS
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from
"FDR's Policies Prolonged
Depression by 7 Years," UCLA Economists Calculate, by Meg
Sullivan, UCLA Newsroom, 2/11/09
BIOMASS
COMPETITION
The U.S. Forest Products Industry is the leading producer and user
of renewable biomass energy. The industry generates more power from
biomass than is generated from all U.S. solar, wind and geothermal
operations, combined.
Because a National Renewable Energy Standard (RES) could increase
demand for biomass energy, creating competition between power generators
and the Forest Products Industry for raw materials, policies should be
enacted to increase its supply from our national forests.
A national RES could help create more "green" jobs and
increase our energy security, but, if policies are not carefully
considered for their unintended impacts, our industry's competiveness
could be damaged.
"The Right Choices for
Renewable Energy Standards"
by
Donna Harman, American Forests Products Assoc. and Michael Draper, United
Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America, 4/13/09
PUBLIC
OPTION
The nonpartisan healthcare consulting firm The Lewin Group
estimates that 88 million employees would lose their private employer
plans and be shifted into the public option if it is included in a
healthcare reform law.
The AFL-CIO endorses the public option. Howard Dean, former
Democratic candidate for President and former DNC Chairman, is on record
as saying "healthcare reform without the public option is not worth
pursuing."
from "How Obama
Miscalculated on Health Care," Nina Easton, CNNMoney, 8/20/09
MARKET-BASED
SOLUTIONS
DISCLAIMER
Articles
not credited have been written by Lye Maynard, Pulp Mill,
who edits this newsletter.
To
place an article in this newsletter, contact him in the Pulp
Mill at 1506 or by email.
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Sally Pipes makes the case for using
free market solutions to improve our healthcare system rather than more
government involvement. She believes her ideas would reduce costs and
improve access to medical care without lessening quality of care. They
include giving individuals the same tax breaks as employers on health
expenses; reducing government mandates for insurance policies; increasing
competition among insurance companies by allowing consumers to shop across
state lines; expanding health savings accounts; supporting retail health
clinics; implementing tort reform and providing medical vouchers for the
chronically poor and uninsured.
Sally Pipes is the CEO of
Pacific Research Center and the author of "Top Ten Myths of American
Health Care."
GREEN
JOBS CZAR
In March 2009, President Obama appointed Van Jones, a board member
of the Apollo Alliance, as his Special Advisor for Green Jobs at the White
House Council on Environmental Quality, more commonly referred to as the
Green Jobs Czar.
The Alliance was formed just after 9/11/01 by leaders of labor,
environmental, business and community organizations who are "trying
to start a clean energy revolution that will create millions of
high-quality jobs." According
to the American Spectator, 8/7/09, the Apollo Alliance helped write
significant portions of the stimulus and the cap-and-trade bills.
The United Steelworkers are heavily involved in the Apollo
Alliance. President Leo Gerard serves on the Board of Directors and,
according to donor information on the Alliance's web site, apolloalliance.org,
the Steelworkers have contributed over $100,000.
Update: Van Jones
resigned his position on September 5th as more and more of his
controversial past statements and actions came to light.
MEDICAL
COSTS
Medical coverage is not a free employer-provided benefit. The cost
to employees for receiving this benefit is lower wages. According to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, healthcare-provided benefits reduced U.S.
wages by an average of almost 8% in 2008.
from "The Push for
Health Care Reform" by Froma Harrop, 5/7/09
DID
YOU KNOW?
In 2008, the average insured family paid $3,350 in
premiums, copays, deductibles, and coinsurance. In 1998 the average family
paid half that amount.
from "Eight Ways to Cut
Your Doctor's Bill," David Whelan, Forbes, 7/21/09
TOP
INSTITUTIONAL HOLDERS
As of the end of June, the top 10 institutional
holders of Clearwater Paper stock collectively owned 43.8% of all
outstanding shares. The top 10 list is headed by T. Rowe Price and
includes Barclays Global; Loomis, Sayles; Vanguard Group; Columbia
Management; Keeley Asset Management; U.S. Steel & Carnegie Pension
Fund; Kestrel Investment Management; AXA and Stelliam Investment
Management.
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